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COVID-19: Worst May Not Be Until End Of April, Cuomo Says, As State Total Hits 83,712 Cases

A projection model released Wednesday, April 1 showing the apex of the pandemic in New York coming at the end of the month. Other projections have it coming as soon as one to two weeks, and still others, as long as six weeks. Photo Credit: ny.gov
In New York, the hardest-hit areas have been New York City and these nine counties, forming the Top 10 in the state as of Wednesday, April 1. Photo Credit: ny.gov
A look at the daily rate of COVID-19 newly hospitalized patients in New York. Photo Credit: ny.gov
A look at the daily rate of COVID-19 patients discharged from New York hospitals. Photo Credit: ny.gov
The latest novel coronavirus stats in New York as of Wednesday, April 1, 2020. Photo Credit: ny.gov
The latest novel coronavirus stats in New York as of Wednesday, April 1, 2020. Photo Credit: ny.gov

The worst of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in New York may not be until the end of April as the death toll continues to rise, Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned.

There have now been 7,917 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York overnight, bringing the statewide total to 83,712. There were also 391 new deaths, as the total climbs to 1,941 since the outbreak began.

Of the 83,712 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 12,226 people are currently hospitalized, including 3,022 patients in the ICU. Since the beginning of the outbreak, 6,142 people have been treated in New York hospitals and later released.

New York’s 83,712 positive cases remain the most in the country by a wide margin, though there has been an uptick in cases in New Jersey (18,696), California (8,582), Michigan (7,630), and Florida (6,741) in recent days.

In New York, the hardest-hit areas have been  New York City and these nine counties, forming the Top 10 in the state:

  • New York City: 47,439 (4,300 new cases);
  • Westchester: 10,683 (716);
  • Nassau: 9,554 (1,010);
  • Suffolk: 7,605 (892);
  • Rockland: 3,321 (459);
  • Orange: 1,756 (200);
  • Dutchess: 547 (63);
  • Erie: 464 (26);
  • Monroe: 349 (57);
  • Albany: 240 (14).

There have now been positive cases of COVID-19 in all but one New York county.

Cuomo made note that the “apex” for the virus, when the state will see the number of cases peaking, is now projected to hit at the end of April. (See first image above.)

When the apex hits, depending on how effective New Yorkers are in social distancing, hospitals across the state may need upwards of 110,000 hospital beds earmarked only for COVID-19 patients and 37,000 ventilators.

“Looking at the projections now, we’re looking at the apex roughly at the end of April, so there’s another month of this,” he said. “One of the great variables is how effective is the social distance, and are people complying with it. We’re seeing different projections depending on how social distancing has been working.”

Other projections have the apex coming as soon as one to two weeks, and still others, as long as six weeks from now, Cuomo noted.

Cuomo once again warned that just because the virus is peaking in New York today, moving forward, this is what other states can expect to experience as COVID-19 continues spreading rapidly.

“These numbers do not say it’s a New York problem," Cuomo said. "It might be a New York today, but soon it’ll be a Kansas problem, a Texas problem, an Arizona problem,” he said. ”Look at us today, and you can see yourself tomorrow.

“In this war, we must plan for the next battle. We’ve been behind from day one. This virus has been behind from day one. 

"Our next battle is on top of that mountain, which represents the apex. That’s where our enemy will either overwhelm our healthcare system or we’ll be able to handle the onslaught of that enemy and come out the other side of the mountain.” 

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