Covid-19 Forecast: UMass Predicts CT Deaths, Infections Over Next 4 Weeks

The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to decrease in Connecticut over the next four weeks, according to the UMass COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

COVID-19 Photo Credit: Pixabay


This week, (Wednesday, Oct. 7 through Tuesday, Oct. 13) there have been about 1,740 positive COVID-19 incidents reported in Connecticut.

In four weeks, the weekly total should be around 1,450 infections, according to the Hub.

Deaths are expected to remain flat.

The University of Massachusetts Amherst COVID-19 Forecast Hub is a data repository for more than 50 international sources. UMass takes the data and puts it into a graph that shows actual totals of COVID-19 infections and deaths as well as an “ensemble forecast” for the next four weeks. The data can be seen at the national and state levels and is updated every Tuesday morning, according to the Hub’s website.


The number of COVID-19-related deaths in Connecticut is expected to stay mostly level over the next four weeks.

This week (Oct. 7-13), there have been 17 COVID-19-related deaths - the highest number of virus-related deaths in one week since the start of August, according to the Hub.

In four weeks, the weekly total number of deaths should be around 16, the Hub reported.

The next prediction from the UMass COVID-19 Forecast Hub is expected on Oct. 20.

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub was founded in March by the Reich Lab at UMass Amherst. It is being supported by faculty and students from UMass, Iowa State, Carnegie Mellon, and international research groups. The Reich Lab is no stranger to infection predictions. It has been working with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to forecast influenza since 2015.

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