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This week, Election Data Services released its 2018 Appointment Study, which found that, based on projected Census data in 2020, New York may lose up to two congressional seats due to a dwindling population.
The study states that “all the projection methods indicate New York will lose two congressional districts in 2020”, marginally missing to keep the second seat by as close as 19,648 people. New York currently has 27 congressional seats.
Election Data Services said that if projections hold steady, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Oregon stand to gain a congressional seat, while Texas may gain two. Rhode Island, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are all projected to join New York in losing seats.
Kimball Brace, President of Election Data Services, Inc. cautioned that the projections as very preliminary and subject to change.
“The change in administration, the lack of a Census Director, shortness of funds appropriated to the Bureau, and how well individual states conduct their own Complete Count campaigns could have a profound impact on how well the 2020 Census is conducted, and therefore the counts that are available for apportionment,” he said. “Having worked with Census data and estimates since the 1970s, it is important to remember that major events like Katrina and the 2008 recession each changed population growth patterns and that impacted and changed the next apportionment.”
Concerned citizens worried that the Census may undercount the amount of New Yorkers have formed a coalition, New York Counts 202 that is hopeful of maximizing participation in the Census to ensure “a fair and accurate count in 2020.”
“New York Counts 2020 is a broad-based, statewide coalition composed of racial, ethnic, immigrant, religious, health, education, labor, housing, social services, and business groups working in partnership with state and local government officials,” they wrote on their website. “Our aim is to ensure that New Yorkers across the state - particularly marginalized communities in hard-to-count districts – can fully maximize their participation in the 2020 Census. “
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