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Welcome to “Minority Report, Jersey Style.”
Milgram was flush with the news yesterday that murders in New Jersey dropped 24 percent the past six months from the same time last year. The problem, criminologists say, is that annual figures — especially homicides — don’t provide a representative enough sample when measuring violent crime, never mind six month’s worth.
At the same time, meteorologists will cite an unseasonably long and cold winter that didn’t let go until April. It rained half the time since then, and temps are expected to really ramp up beginning today.
Let’s see what all that does to the tamp down.
Murders sound scrary, but as statistics they indicate little. They often involve domestic disputes, which sometimes mean more than one death.
Statewide we’ve gone from 209 total homicides the first six months of last year to 158 the first six months of this year. Gov. Corzine credits anti-crime initiatives focused on the latest terror threat to our society: gangs.
He’s right: New Jersey has gangs. But they aren’t the type to litter vacant lots with bodies. Never were.
The governor mght have considered other forces — namely, laws that make it extremely difficult to obtain a firearm in New Jersey, or just good police work all around.
NJ murders peaked at 427 for 2006, so any decreasing figures must be compared to the 1990s and not to the past few years. Much more reliable measures of violent crime in society are robberies and aggravated assaults.
Jerry DeMarco
So let’s see here…. robberies…. aggravated assaults… robberies and agg assaults….. Ah, yes, right here:
Over the first six months of this year, robberies and aggravated assaults decreased in New Jersey by less than 1 percent.
“Day in and day out, the people behind me are winning and making progress on the war on crime in our state,” said Corzine, flanked by police, at a news conference in East Orange.
Tell that to the family of Jersey City hero Marc Antony DiNardo. Or to the loved ones of Essex Corrections Officer Kelly R. McKenith or of her 4-month-old son. Or the parents of the next kid to die violently in Elizabeth. Ask the good people of Paterson or Trenton or Camden if they feel any safer.
Then ask them what they think of a program that claims to have prevented 14 murders.
Milgram didn’t say how they pegged the figure at 14, or what specific technique allows law enforcement to look into the future. “Instead of waiting for the 911 call, we are out there every single day gathering intelligence and information,” she replied.
Milgram and her boss said they’ve created a database of street gang members. They didn’t detail the qualifying criteria: In some states, you simply need to check “gang member” on a form and you’ve made the list.
The governor also chose an improving East Orange neighborhood as the site for a news conference to flash the murder stats like newly-won lottery cash. They did so in a safe zone, however: Uniformed police had cordoned off several blocks.
I didn’t have that kind of protection when I lived and worked in similar neighborhoods, nor did my brother or sister. Yet we lived to tell the tale.
Here’s my fear: The administration is, in so many words, is telling us that it’s fully prepared not only to hold the line on police totals but to maybe even agree with those towns trying to lay off large numbers of uniformeds. After all, the murder numbers are down. Someone must be doing something right, no?
I just hope I’m wrong. I hope I’m not able to predict the future.
Guess we’ll find out soon enough.
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