75°
Punxsutawney Phil might have predicted six more weeks of winter Thursday morning, but National Weather Service (NWS) officials believe Westchester might continue with one of the warmest winters in recent memory.
Area temperatures hovered around 65 degrees on Tuesday, kicking off one of the warmest February's ever recorded in New York. The weather service said the highest temperature recorded in the New York area was 64 degrees in Newark, N.J. White Plains registered a high of 61 degrees on Tuesday, weather officials said.
We set a couple of records at JFK and Islip. But were way above normal almost everywhere right now, said Tim Morrin, NWS observation program leader. The normal high for Westchester this time of year is in the upper-30s.
Morrin said most of the temperatures might not be record-breaking on any given day, but the sustained warmth since October is unusual.
Its just the fact that were so remarkably above normal, Morrin said, adding readings in Central Park in Manhattan so far this winter point to it being one of the top five warmest winters in history. We dont have a long-term history in Westchester, but weve noticed the temperatures are very similar to Central Park," he said. "So its safe to assume the same thing is happening there.
With regard to the famous groundhog predictions, Morrin said its just for fun.
We dont make any real comments regarding that, he said with a laugh. Its a neat thing but theres no real science involved there.
There are scientific measures, however, that the NWS uses that can be very accurate in predicting weather patterns months away, Morrin said. The first is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which Morrin explains is a jet stream that separates warm and cold air in the upper-atmosphere across the Pacific Ocean.
This winter its been abnormal. The cold air has been bottled up in the northern areas and its not coming down, he said. The ENSO is a pattern that can persist for a matter of years. So thats a marker we can use with confidence that its going to be around for a while.
But the second marker explains why this winter has remained so different than last year, Morrin said. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather pattern in the North Atlanticthat allows cold air in Northern Canada to drain down and can change every week, Morrin said.
Last year, we had way above normal snowfall and thats why, he said. We had a La Niña just like this year but the difference was the NAO. Weve been in the same phase of the oscillation and its been a warm phase since October. Its unusual that its stayed in that phase. If it flips in February or even March, we could have a late winter switch thrown. Well all have to keep an eye out for that.
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