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The asteroid, called 2024 YR4, which is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, was first detected on Friday, Dec. 27, 2024, by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile.
In early February, scientists said it had a slightly more than one percent chance of colliding with Earth on Wednesday, Dec. 22, 2032.
But then, that percentage increased to 3.1 percent early last week, before then falling to 1.5 percent the next day, according to new NASA calculations.
"It is important to note that this rising impact probability is an expected result as we continue to improve our knowledge of the asteroid’s orbit," said the European Space Agency, which current rates the percentage likelihood of an earth strike at 2.8 percent.
Even at a one-percent risk factor, that would be the highest level ever recorded.
"Although 2024 YR4 would not come close to decimating a country, it could scar or demolish a city with a direct hit. And there is a very slim chance that it might," according to The New York Times.
Part of the uncertainty lies within understanding 2024 YR4’s orbit and how close it will come to Earth in the future,
Check back to Daily Voice for updates.
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