75°
AccuWeather reported Thursday, May 14, that El Niño is expected to develop around the start of summer and could reach rare Super El Niño status as early as October or November.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said that El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82 percent chance from May through July and a 96 percent chance of continuing through winter.
NOAA also cautioned that peak strength remains uncertain.
AccuWeather says a Super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in part of the equatorial Pacific reach at least 3.6 degrees F, or 2 degrees C, above average. That has happened only five times since 1950.
“This developing El Niño has the potential to become one of the strongest in decades and could rival some of the most intense events observed in modern records," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.
“An El Niño is not a storm. It does not affect you directly. It is a cycle that contributes, like many other factors, to producing weather changes and sometimes extremes.
“The US could see a more active southern storm track this winter, including wetter conditions across parts of the Southern states, warmer conditions across portions of the northern US, and an increased risk of weather extremes.
“El Niño is expected to develop officially early this summer as water temperatures steadily warm across the equatorial Pacific. While some impacts may emerge later this year, the more significant global weather effects are likely early next year.”
The effects could be broad. Strong El Niño events can raise global temperatures, shift storm tracks, worsen drought in some regions, and trigger flooding in others.
AccuWeather also reported that a Super El Niño could strain food and water supplies worldwide.
Potential impacts include drought and wildfire risk in places such as Australia and Indonesia, flooding threats in parts of South America and East Africa, and changes to tropical activity. El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricane development while boosting activity in parts of the Pacific.
“In the United States, an El Niño pattern typically brings more rain to the Midwest and parts of the West during the summer," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. "It will likely produce extended periods of dry weather from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast, but mixed in will be some heavy pockets of rain.”
Daily Voice reported Friday, May 1, that AccuWeather's summer outlook called for a split pattern across the US, with flash flooding possible from Texas to the Ohio Valley, worsening drought in the Northwest and Great Basin, and elevated wildfire risk in the West.
For the Northeast, AccuWeather has forecast a slower transition to consistent summerlike warmth, followed by a possible late-summer surge of heat and humidity.
Check back to Daily Voice for the latest updates.
Click here to follow Daily Voice Stamford and receive free news updates.
