El Niño will be back and it will have a significant impact on the winter weather pattern in the area.
Whose outlook for the winter do you believe?
Farmers' Almanac (dire winter)
Old Farmer's Almanac, AccuWeather, National Weather Service (mild winter)
Somewhere in between
El Niño is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.
What does that mean for us?
In a nutshell, we will see warmer than average temperatures through the end of the calendar year and near normal snowfall for the entire winter, according to a new outlook for the winter released by AccuWeather. (See first image above.)
There is one caveat.
Colder weather will arrive in January and February, with the possibility that the tristate area "may wind up 4 to 8 degrees colder this February compared to last February,” according to AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.
Two other long-range forecasts for the winter came out in September.
One was released by the Farmers' Almanac, the other by the more well-known Old Farmer's Almanac.
The Farmers' Almanac, which says it bases its prediction on a "mathematical and astronomical formula," is calling for a "cold & white" winter in the Northeast with above-average snowfall. (See second image above.)
The winter outlook by the Old Farmer's Almanac, in existence since 1792, calls for "warm, wet" weather with more rain and less snow in this region and above normal temperatures almost everywhere. (See third image above.)
"Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North," the Old Farmer's Almanac says.
The Farmers' Almanac, by the way, is hardly a startup. It was established in 1818.
You can compare the winter forecasts below:
Do you think Jack Frost will be nipping at your nose this winter? Tell us which almanac's prediction you believe by voting in our poll and leaving a comment.
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