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But “the main question is, 'How much are we going to get?'” he told the Daily Voice.
The U.S. model predicts 6 to 10 inches of snow in the region, while the European model predicts 3 to 7 inches. Which is more accurate?
“Historically, the European model has been the superior one,” Lessor said. “It seems to do better in longer-term forecasts.”
But Lessor said the U.S. models improve in accuracy as a weather event nears. “Typically the closer you get, the U.S. models do a lot better than they do further out,” he said.
The snow — which would be the first significant snow accumulation this winter — is the result of a low pressure system that is traveling the country.
While Fairfield County will see only 3 to 10 inches of snow — depending on which model you use — the mid-Atlantic states are expected to receive significantly more. Some places may see accumulations of 20 inches, Lessor said.
In Fairfield County, Lessor predicts that coastal areas will see 5 to 9 inches. The interior may see 3 to 6 inches, he said.
Those thinking of making a snowman or a fort are more likely to have an easier time along the shore, where snow will be more moist than in the interior, Lessor said.
Accumulations have been well below normal in Connecticut this year. The region has received only 1.5 inches of snow along the shoreline, while snowfall closer to 10.9 inches would be expected by this time of year.
Northern Connecticut receives closer to 17.2 inches in a typical year. The region has only has seen only 1.4 inches of snow, Lessor said.
Even if the region sees significant snowfall this weekend — unless the storm is a lot worse than anticipated — this year’s snow accumulations will be far lower than in past years. “We’re still not even getting back to normal,” Lessor said.
The upcoming storm is expected to start around 7 a.m. Saturday and end after midnight on Sunday.
The storm is expected to be stronger south of Connecticut: New York City is under a Blizzard Watch and the Hudson River Valley is under a Winter Storm Watch. No warnings had been issued for Connecticut as of Thursday morning.
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