The National Weather Service says rain will spread across the region Sunday, Sept. 20, with the steadiest and heaviest downpours expected from the afternoon into the evening. The system will move through faster than earlier forecasts suggested, limiting the flash flood threat in many areas.
Around New York City, Long Island, northern New Jersey, Connecticut, and parts of southeastern New York, rain will continue through early Sunday afternoon before easing to showers, mist, or drizzle later in the day. The National Weather Service expects much of the area to receive from 0.5 to 1 inch of rain.
Ponding is possible on low-lying roads and in poor-drainage locations. A brief embedded thunderstorm could produce a heavier burst, but widespread flash flooding is not expected.
In eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey, rain will fall at times throughout Sunday as a cold front passes late in the day and overnight. The National Weather Service says heavier pockets are most likely northwest of I-95, though the overall flood risk remains low.
Farther south, Maryland and Virginia could see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. The National Weather Service expects the greatest storm chance south of I-66 and east of the Blue Ridge in Virginia.
The first round will fade, but the week does not turn dry.
A stalled front south of the region could keep rain chances alive through midweek, especially across the Delmarva region. Forecast confidence declines later in the week as a coastal low may develop offshore.
"How long the rain lasts in parts of the mid-Atlantic states through southern New England will be determined by the area of high pressure in southeastern Canada," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
The larger concern may shift to the coast from Tuesday, Sept. 22, through Thursday, Sept. 24.
Persistent onshore winds could build rough surf, strengthen rip currents, erode beaches, and cause tidal flooding.
The National Weather Service says seas could build above 12 feet off the New York and New Jersey coasts by midweek. Minor, and possibly moderate, coastal flooding is possible around multiple high-tide cycles later in the week.
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