The National Weather Service says a developing low-pressure system will spread showers, thunderstorms, and torrential downpours across the region from Saturday, Sept. 12, into Sunday, Sept. 13. New flood watches now cover parts of the Interstate 95 corridor and southern New England.
The timing varies sharply from south to north.
Across Maryland and Virginia, scattered showers may develop Saturday morning. Storms should become more organized during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours.
The Weather Prediction Center expanded its slight risk for excessive rainfall into parts of Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and central and eastern Virginia. Slow-moving storms could cause localized flash flooding, particularly in urban areas, near small streams, and where soils are saturated. Stronger storms could bring gusty winds and small hail.
Farther north, much of the New York City region, Connecticut, northern New Jersey, and Massachusetts should remain dry through Saturday and the first half of Saturday night.
In those locations, showers are expected to spread from west to east after midnight, mainly after 2 a.m. Sunday. The National Weather Service says the system could produce heavy downpours, several thunderstorms, and isolated to scattered flash flooding.
Average rainfall should range from 1 to 2 inches around the New York City region. Localized totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible across parts of Long Island and coastal Connecticut.
Southeastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey face a six- to eight-hour window of heavy rain early Sunday. Totals of 1 to 2 inches could fall along the Interstate 95 corridor before precipitation tapers during the morning.
Forecasters say a narrow band of torrential rain could produce localized totals of 2 to 4 inches within three hours across parts of eastern Connecticut and southeastern Massachusetts.
AccuWeather’s northern graphic places a broad corridor from Pennsylvania through New York and New England in line for soaking rainfall Saturday night into Sunday.
The rain should move out from southwest to northeast later Sunday. Most of the region will turn dry and less humid on Monday, Sept. 14, with seasonable early-autumn conditions continuing into Tuesday.
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