But a few things are clear: the greatest potential for severe weather is currently expected along the coast, and it will deliver a punishing combination of rain and wind, with some communities facing a much rougher weekend than others.
The National Weather Service said Thursday, Sept. 24, that eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island face the greatest rainfall potential as the storm brings prolonged coastal impacts beginning Friday, Sept. 25.
High wind watches cover parts of coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island through Saturday evening, Sept. 26. NWS forecast
The storm’s exact track remains uncertain. NWS forecasters expect the strongest land-based winds along the coast, where trees still carrying leaves will be more vulnerable to damage.
AccuWeather’s rainfall map projects 4 to 8 inches across parts of southeastern Massachusetts through Sunday night, Sept. 27, with localized totals potentially reaching 13 inches. Boston falls within its 2-to-4-inch band. Much of Connecticut, New York City, and Long Island falls within the 1- to 2-inch zone.
Its outage map highlights potential regional disruptions across parts of Long Island, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. The company forecasts coastal gusts of 40 to 60 mph.
“Parts of southern New England, especially near the south coast, have been particularly wet over the past 30 days, with some locations receiving 150–200 percent of their historical average rainfall," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "The wet ground increases the risk of trees toppling in wind gusts of 50–60 mph.
“Many trees still have their leaves, which catch more wind and place additional strain on their roots, further increasing the risk for trees to come down and may also increase the number of power outages as compared to similar storms.”
NWS offers a more restrained outlook for the New York City region, expecting limited rain impacts and mostly minor wind impacts. Isolated downed trees and power lines remain possible, especially farther east. Coastal flooding could peak Friday evening and Saturday morning. NWS New York forecast
Farther south, moderate to locally major tidal flooding remains a concern around the lower Chesapeake Bay and Virginia’s tidal rivers. Coastal flood warnings extend through Friday across much of the affected area. NWS Wakefield forecast
Porter also raised the possibility that the storm could change character offshore.
“Given that the developing nor'easter will be slowly moving over the very warm water of the Gulf Stream for two or three days, the storm may take on some characteristics that would resemble a tropical storm," Porter said. "Such hybrid storms are called subtropical storms. If that occurs, the storm could be assigned a name by the National Hurricane Center."
Check back to Daily Voice for the latest updates.
Click here to follow Daily Voice and receive free news updates.
