The National Hurricane Center said on Tuesday, Sept. 16, showers and thunderstorms tied to the system, about halfway between the Windward Islands and the west coast of Africa, have become better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as it moves west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
The NHC pegs formation odds at 90 percent through 48 hours and 90 percent through seven days.
The next two names on the Atlantic list are Gabrielle and Humberto.
AccuWeather forecasters say the wave is moving into a pocket of low wind shear and increasing midlevel moisture that favors strengthening.
They expect the next tropical storm to develop by the end of the week and note that early steering currents would tend to carry the system mainly north of the Caribbean and away from the US.
“The tropical wave moving through the Atlantic will reach an area with low wind shear later this week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "This wave could intensify quickly once it passes north of the Leeward Islands and reaches an area with conditions that are ripe for intensification. We expect the next tropical storm to develop by the end of the week.”
Later this month, the system could approach Bermuda, but confidence in that scenario remains low until a storm actually forms.
Another tropical wave emerging off Africa could also begin organizing as early as this weekend, according to AccuWeather.
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