AccuWeather says damp conditions will build across the Midwest and Northeast as the week goes on, adding to a chilly early to mid-May pattern.
The storm system will move from the Great Lakes toward the Northeast coast around midweek. Showers and storms will develop along an approaching cold front on Wednesday, May 13, and continue overnight, tapering off from south to north on Thursday, May 14.
The outlook affects much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia.
AccuWeather graphics show the chilly pattern holding through Friday, May 15, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below historical averages in parts of the region. The setup also brings wetter intervals to the East and increases frost risk farther west and north.
"From mid- to late week, a late-spring, clipper-like system diving south out of central Canada into the Great Lakes and East could spark some gusty thunderstorms across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic,"
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
Some downpours could produce wind gusts over 30 mph, AccuWeather says. That may cause slow travel on area interstates and affect outdoor plans.
The rain will be useful in some spots. Drought conditions remain a concern across parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England, and any rain could help.
The problem will be persistence. AccuWeather says the storm will slow and linger near the New England coast late in the week. By Friday, the system is expected to shift offshore, but showers may continue along portions of the I-95 corridor.
Persistent downpours could also cause localized flooding later in the week, especially in New England and areas where thunderstorms develop.
The chill was already noticeable late Monday, May 11, and into Tuesday morning, when parts of the Great Lakes and the interior Northeast dropped into the 30s, with areas of frost.
"Some locations in northwest Pennsylvania and upstate New York dropped into the 20s with a freeze," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "Fortunately, the duration of freezing temperatures was much shorter early Tuesday morning than the hard freeze in April, which caused great damage to fruit trees, vines, and bushes in the mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. Still, there may have been some new damage as growth and bud break are farther along across the northern tier."
A bigger change is expected later in the month. AccuWeather graphics show a significant warm-up from Sunday, May 17, through Wednesday, May 20, as the jet stream shifts north and warmer air spreads eastward. That could bring a more summer-like feel ahead of Memorial Day.
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