Economic forecaster Steven Cochrane told a forum of Fairfield County business people that by 2012 an expanding global economy will spark an upswing in the U.S. He said this is a positive indicator for the state.
"Connecticut's economy has increasingly been driven by global demand," said the managing director of Moody's Analytics. "I think this bodes well for the Connecticut economy."
The analyst offered his perspective at the recent Fairfield County Economic Summit and Outlook conference. He expected the ailing economy to show signs of long-term health in 2012, and urged business leaders to be patient as remedies leading to that recovery take hold.
He said he and other analysts, who had hoped for an earlier rebound, have "revised our forecast down of late" as economic growth occurs at a slower-than-expected pace. Before the recovery "there's a little of a decline still to come," he said.
One of the reasons is that the stimulus dollars have not reached their peak effect on the state's economy, the forecaster said.
"The effect of stimulus spending is really the strongest when it's ramping up," he said, adding, "I think one of the real problems with the economy right now is confidence."
By 2012, however, "households should be spending again," said Cochrane. "Also, bank lending should no longer be constrained."
However, the driving force of the economy then will be different from the pre-recession period, he said. While consumer spending has long been an accelerator, he said, in the future it will be the expanding global economy.
The summit was presented by the Connecticut Business and Industry Association, the Stamford Chamber of Commerce and UConn's The Connecticut Economy.
Gubernatorial candidates Dan Malloy and Tom Foley also spoke at the event. Seehttp://www.thedailystamford.com/news/malloy-foley-speak-about-economy-0.
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