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Climate Central released its Coastal Flood Risk Across the US study on Wednesday, April 2. The nonprofit scientific group said coastal flooding will threaten more than 2.5 million Americans in about 1.4 million homes by 2050.
In a generation, a "100-year flood" could reach homes across dozens of coastal Northeast communities, threatening more than 1.1 million residents from the North Shore of Massachusetts to the Virginia Beach area.
"As sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, flooding during coastal storms will threaten more homes in the US every year," said Kristina Dahl, Climate Central's vice president for science. "By pinpointing local risks, science and technology can lead the way toward solutions that protect coastal residents in an increasingly hazardous future."
Climate Central, based in Princeton, New Jersey, uses sea level rise projections and census data to map where severe coastal flooding is expected to expand by the beginning of the second half of the 21st century.
New York state alone accounts for an estimated 445,337 residents in 188,456 homes at risk and New York City is the community with the largest number of threatened people at around 270,847. The Empire State only ranks behind Florida for the most at-risk residents.
New Jersey was in third place, with more than 323,982 people and 232,228 homes projected to be in the danger zone. Three Garden State cities ranked in the nation's top ten most at risk: Hoboken (fifth), Jersey City (seventh), and Atlantic City (ninth).
At least 90% of residents in several New Jersey communities are at risk for sea level rise, including Moonachie (99%), Wildwood (95%), and North Wildwood (94%). More than three in four residents are also threatened by coastal flooding in Little Ferry (83%), Ocean City (81%), and Margate (78%).
Massachusetts has the fifth-highest number of people living in areas at risk of severe flooding, with an estimated 173,661 vulnerable Bay Staters. That's especially true for Boston, which only trails NYC for cities with the largest number of threatened residents (85,252 people).
Virginia ranked sixth for at-risk residents with about 146,035 people threatened. Many of the vulnerable live in the low-lying Tidewater region, as well as communities along the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River.
Maryland has the 11th-highest number of threatened people at 57,561 residents. Many at-risk areas are on the state's Eastern Shore, including 56% of Ocean City's population.
Somewhat insulated by Long Island, Connecticut has the 12th-most vulnerable residents at around 38,398 people. The most at-risk communities sit along rivers like Bridgeport, Middletown, Milford, New Haven, Old Saybrook, Stonington, and Stratford.
While nearly landlocked, Pennsylvania does have 6,042 residents threatened by flooding fueled by rising oceans. That mainly consists of people living in low-lying areas south of Philadelphia along the Delaware River.
The report highlights that seniors are particularly vulnerable.
Nationwide, people age 65 and older make up 22% of the population at risk from a 100-year coastal flood. In several Northeast states, that share is even higher:
- New York: 89,600 seniors
- New Jersey: 66,200 seniors
- Massachusetts: 26,200 seniors
- Virginia: 26,000 seniors
- Maryland: 15,000 seniors
- Connecticut: 9,600 seniors
- Pennsylvania: 1,700 seniors
In Pennsylvania, seniors account for 27% of those living in at-risk flood zones — compared to just 19% of the overall population.
Climate Central's analysis is based on a "middle-of-the-road" projection called the SSP2-4.5 global emissions pathway, which assumes that current pledges to cut carbon pollution are fulfilled. The study also draws on elevation data, flood models, and 2020 US Census records.
The Coastal Risk Finder tool also layers in social vulnerability data, showing that three in four Americans living in at-risk zones have at least one factor — such as low income or limited English — that may increase harm during a flood.
"By pinpointing local risks, science and technology can lead the way toward solutions that protect coastal residents in an increasingly hazardous future," Dahl said.
You can click here to use the Coastal Risk Finder to see which neighborhoods are projected to be most harmed by coastal flooding and rising sea levels.
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