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Hochul now leads Zeldin by just four points, 50 to 46 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters.
While Hochul enjoys a comfortable lead in New York City, 59 to 37 percent, the race is much tighter in the suburbs, with Zeldin receiving 50 percent and Hochul receiving 49 percent, the poll found.
Among their parties, Democrats support Hochul 91 to 8 percent, while Republicans back Zeldin 92 to 7 percent. Independents support Zeldin 57 to 37 percent, according to the poll.
Political analysts said Zeldin’s campaign strategy of focusing on rising crime appears to be resonating with voters, who ranked crime as the “most urgent” issue (28 percent) facing New Yorkers, the poll found.
Inflation was second at 20 percent, followed by protecting democracy at 14 percent.
"In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow said.
“Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul's narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her.”
The governor’s race is now labeled as a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics (RCP), who previously pegged the race as “lean Democrat.”
A rolling average of polls from Sept. 30 to Oct. 12 from RCP had Zeldin trailing Hochul by 5.3 points, 43.7 to 49 percent.
The fresh polling is welcome news for supporters of Zeldin, who previously trailed Hochul by 14 points, 39 to 53 percent, according to a Siena College poll in August 2022.
Zeldin celebrated the new numbers in a post on Twitter Tuesday, Oct. 18.
“We are going to win this race! We MUST win this race!” he wrote.
Zeldin represents the state’s 1st Congressional District covering eastern Long Island. He is a staunch supporter of former President Trump and was among the 147 Republicans in Congress who voted against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Trump officially endorsed Zeldin for governor in a post on his “Truth Social” media platform on Sunday, Oct. 16, saying Zeldin “was strong on the Border, our great Military & Vets (like few others!), and fought hard to protect our 2nd Amendment, and succeeded.”
“Lee Zeldin was a WINNER who GOT THINGS DONE,” Trump continued. “He will be a GREAT governor of New York, and has my Complete & Total Endorsement. GOOD LUCK LEE!”
Hochul, a former lieutenant governor and the state’s first female governor, is seeking her first full term in office after assuming the role in August 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
She and Zeldin will take part in their sole debate on Tuesday, Oct. 25 at 7 p.m. at Pace University in Manhattan. It will air on Spectrum News NY1.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.
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