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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7.9 points to 86.0 in April, the nonprofit said in a news release on Tuesday, April 29. This marked the fifth straight decline and the lowest reading since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Expectations Index, which tracks views of the next six months, plunged 12.5 points to 54.4 – its lowest level since October 2011. That's far below the 80-point level that typically signals a coming recession.
Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board, said the slide comes from growing worries about businesses' health, the job market, and personal finances.
"The decline was largely driven by consumers' expectations," said Guichard. "The three expectation components – business conditions, employment prospects, and future income – all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future."
The Conference Board also found that 32.1% of Americans expect fewer jobs over the next six months. The rising concern has nearly reached levels last seen in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
More consumers now expect their income to drop than rise – a first since 2020.
"In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations," Guichard said.
The April decline was broadly across most age and income groups, with the steepest drop among Americans aged 35 to 55 and those earning more than $125,000. Political affiliation had no measurable impact.
Write-in responses showed that Trump's sweeping tariffs are a top concern.
Mentions of tariffs hit an all-time high, with consumers citing fears that Trump's tariffs would raise prices and hurt the broader economy. Inflation and high living costs also remained dominant issues, though some consumers reported price drops for gas and some foods.
Nearly half (48.5%) of consumers expect stock prices to fall over the next year, the highest share since 2011.
"High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers' views about the stock market deeper into negative territory," said Guichard.
Americans were more negative about the job market, despite more people saying current business conditions were good and fewer saying they were bad. There was a decrease in people believing jobs were "plentiful," while there was an increase in respondents saying jobs were "hard to get."
Inflation expectations also climbed. On average, Americans expect prices to rise 7% over the next year — the highest since late 2022.
At the same time, more people predict interest rates will go up, while fewer anticipate a drop. Consumers' views of their family finances weakened in April, with future financial expectations sinking to the lowest point since tracking began in 2022.
Plans to buy homes, cars, and vacations declined over a six-month average. Big-ticket item purchases like appliances and electronics also pulled back in April, though they remained up slightly over a six-month period.
Intentions to spend on services dropped across nearly every category.
"While dining out remained number one among spending intentions, the share of consumers planning to spend more on dining out in the months ahead registered one of the largest month-on-month declines on record in April," The Conference Board said.
The Conference Board is expected to release its next survey findings on Tuesday, May 27.
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