60°
In early May, Trump has repeatedly claimed gas has fallen below $2 a gallon. He made the claim in the White House, social media posts, and during an interview with NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, May 4.
Trump also said gas was $1.98 a gallon when speaking with ABC News on Tuesday, April 29, at the end of his first 100 days back in the Oval Office.
"So now, if you look at what's happened, energy is down," Trump said. "Gasoline hit $1.98 in a few states during the last couple of days. It was $3.50 and $4.00 and $4.50. But gasoline is way down."
The numbers don't back up that claim.
The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded gas was $3.17, AAA said on Monday, May 5. According to GasBuddy data, a Texaco in Moss Point, Mississippi, was the cheapest station in the US at $2.19 per gallon.
Here are AAA's averages across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic as of May 5:
- Connecticut - $3.07
- Delaware - $3.05
- Maryland - $3.16
- Massachusetts - $2.98
- New Hampshire - $2.89
- New Jersey - $3.00
- New York - $3.10
- Pennsylvania - $3.33
- Rhode Island - $2.96
- Vermont - $3.08
- Virginia - $3.01
- Washington, DC - $3.20
- West Virginia - $3.07
Trump's $1.98 per gallon lie seems to come from futures in what's called RBOB gasoline. RBOB, or reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, is a blend of petroleum widely used in gas for vehicles.
RBOB futures have been trading at around $1.98 since late April. The RBOB contract, however, doesn't reflect what drivers actually pay at the pump.
The raw gas price doesn't include costs such as mixing in ethanol, taxes, and other regional differences.
"That price is not inclusive of anything," GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan told CNBC. "It excludes taxes, it excludes tariffs, transportation, the cost of doing business, credit card fees – I mean all of it."
De Haan also said RBOB futures don't explain what customers actually pay for gas.
"It would be irrelevant to the consumer to know what the price of RBOB is because they're not paying the wholesale price of RBOB," he said.
Despite seasonal demand, AAA said gas prices are down nearly 50 cents from 2024. That's partly because crude oil costs have fallen, helped by a decision by OPEC+ to increase supply in June.
Trump's sweeping tariff policies have also suppressed international demand, lowering oil prices.
"With arduous trade negotiations expected to take place during the coming 90-day reprieve on tariffs and possibly beyond, oil markets are in for a bumpy ride and considerable uncertainties hang over our forecasts for this year and next," the International Energy Agency said in its April market report.
According to De Haan, refinery maintenance is still limiting how far gas prices can drop, but that may change.
"Refinery output is expected to rise soon," De Haan wrote on his Substack. "As maintenance wraps up, we could see an increase in gasoline supply and a national average that may soon dip below $3 per gallon."
According to AAA, California has the highest gas prices at $4.78 per gallon, while Mississippi is the cheapest at $2.65.
Click here to follow Daily Voice Hartford and receive free news updates.
