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Polls Shows CT Gubernatorial Race Could Go Down To Wire

Democrat Ned Lamont of Greenwich, with his wife Ann and their three children, is in "a tight race" for governor against Republican Bob Stefanowski of Madison, according to two university polls. Photo Credit: Provided
Bob Stefanowski with his wife, Amy, and their three daughters. The Madison business executive is in a tight race for governor against Democrat Ned Lamont, according to two university polls. Photo Credit: Provided

New public-opinion polls predict a tight race for the governorship in the coming months.

If the governor's election was held today, who would you vote for?
Final Results Voting Closed

If the governor's election was held today, who would you vote for?

  • Democrat Ned Lamont
  • Republican Bob Stefanowski
  • Gov. Dannel P. Malloy
  • Undecided
  • Other candidate

The Nov. 6 election for an open seat is between Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Bob Stefanowski, who each won their political party primary races on Aug. 14.

The winner of the general election succeeds Democrat Dannel P. Malloy, a two-term governor who decided not to seek re-election this fall.

Lamont of Greenwich is running ahead of Stefanowski of Madison in both the new Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media Poll and holds an even wider lead in a Quinnipiac University Poll.

Both public-opinion surveys said much could change between now and Nov. 6 due to a divided number of undecided, independent voters and fluid state issues.

The Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy.conducted its telephone survey of more than 500 likely voters from Aug. 16 through Tuesday, Aug. 21.

The Sacred Heart University poll found that 40.8 percent of Connecticut voters currently support Lamont for governor compared to 36.9 percent who support Stefanowski.

The separate Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday, Aug. 23 found Lamont leading Stefanowski, by 46 to 33 percent, as reported here.  

In a statement, Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, said: "Ned Lamont is leading Bob Stefanowski by double digits thanks to huge support among women and Connecticut's status as a true blue state. But there's a lot of time until Election Day, and a number of undecided voters up for grabs," 

Unaffiliated voters, meaning those not enrolled in either major political party are currently divided, the SHU poll found, since 29.8 percent support Lamont and 29.8 percent support Stefanowski. In addition, 27.3 percent of unaffiliated voters said they were undecided at the time of the poll.

Both university-sponsored polls identified a wide gender gap among likely voters. 

The SHU poll found that a "major gender gap exists" as 49.3 percent of female voters support Lamont compared to 30.1 percent of female voters who support Stefanowski.

In contrast, 43.9 percent of male voters support Stefanowski compared to 31.4 percent of male voters who support Lamont, the SHU poll found.

The Quinnipiac University poll also identified a wide gender split among voters -- with Lamont leading Stefanowski 50 percent to 27 percent among women. Men were more evenly divided in the Quinnipiac poll -- with 40 percent for Lamont and 39 percent for Stefanowski.

"However, the race will remain fluid as voters get to know more about the candidates," the SHU Public Policy Institute concluded.

Currently, 44.4 percent of Connecticut voters told SHU they “have not heard enough" to form an opinion about Stefanowski, of New Haven County, a former General Electric chief executive officer and UBS Investment Bank financial officer.

Likewise, 41.6 percent of likely voters said they "have not heard enough" about Lamont, a Greenwich businessman who founded a weekly newspaper and later competed with large telecom companies. He's also a former U.S. Senate candidate.

The SHU poll, which can be accessed by clicking here, also explored voters' opinions about the "high overall tax burden," the "state budget crisis," and whether to place tolls on major Connecticut highways. 

Finally, less than 16 percent of Connecticut voters told SHU they “approve” of the job Gov. Malloy has been doing. 

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